Vol. 119 · Cong. H.R. 3633

The CLARITY Act Tracker

Digital Asset Market Clarity Act · Live Broadsheet
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Bill · H.R. 3633 Sponsor · Rep. F. Hill (R-AR) Introduced · May 29, 2025 Status · Markup window opens May 11 Polymarket · Fetching…

§ 01Live Signals market & calendar

· Real-Time
Polymarket — signed into law 2026? ↗ View
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Fetching live odds…
Vol. — Galaxy Est. ~50% Kalshi ~52%
Markup Window Opens·
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Days Left
May 11, 2026 — first possible Senate Banking markup window.
Memorial Day Recess·
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Days Left
Senate breaks May 21 — markup must clear before then.
August Recess·
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Days Left
5-week recess — bill must reach floor by July.
Election Day·
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Days Left
Nov 3, 2026 — possible House flip risk.

§ 02Path to Enactment five gates

1 / 5 Cleared
Stage 01

House Passage

H.R. 3633 cleared the floor with a bipartisan 294–134 margin. 78 Democrats crossed over.

Cleared · Jul 2025
Stage 02

Senate Banking Markup

Lummis confirms May markup. Tillis flipped — says bill is "ready for hearing." Scott still securing 13/13 GOP votes (Kennedy holdout).

Window opens · Week of May 11
Stage 03

Senate Floor Vote

60-vote threshold. Whip count fluid; Democrat framework only partially aligned.

Pending
Stage 04

Reconciliation

Three-way merge: Banking text + Agriculture text (cleared Jan 29) + House H.R. 3633.

Pending
Stage 05

Presidential Signature

Administration signaled support. Witt (PCADA) actively engaged in negotiations.

Pending

§ 03Sticking Points live blockers

3 Active Disputes

GOP Whip Count

High

Scott needs 13 of 13 Republicans to advance the bill on party lines. Tillis flipped this week — Kennedy now the visible holdout. Stablecoin yield compromise still being finalized in writing.

On board: Scott, Lummis, Tillis, Hagerty, Moreno
Holding out: Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA)

Ethics Provision

Rising

Democrat-driven section banning government officials from personal crypto business interests — aimed at Trump and family. Tillis reportedly agrees the bill needs it. Won't surface in Banking but will return on the floor.

For: Senate Democrats (bloc)
Against: White House (implicit), House GOP

Grassley Jurisdiction Bid

Medium

Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley pushing to route DeFi developer protections through his committee. Adds steps, time, and uncertainty if granted. Crypto advocates flagging this as the new sleeper risk.

For Banking only: Scott, Lummis, industry
For dual jurisdiction: Sen. Grassley, Judiciary GOP

§ 04Chronology key events

May 2025 — Present
29 May 2025
Bill introduced
Rep. French Hill files H.R. 3633 through House Financial Services — first market-structure text after FIT21.
22 Jul 2025
Scott–Lummis Senate draft released
Banking Committee opens its track; Agriculture Committee process begins in parallel.
Jul 2025
House passes 294–134
Bipartisan majority; 78 Democrats cross over. Bill moves to Senate with momentum.
12 Jan 2026
Senate Banking 278-page draft
Prohibits passive yield; permits activity-linked rewards. Industry pushback begins immediately.
29 Jan 2026
Senate Agriculture advances bill
First Senate committee to clear a version. Democratic amendments rejected.
Mar 2026
Stablecoin-yield compromise
Bipartisan agreement in principle. White House calls it "the critical unlock." Bank lobbying immediately works to fragment it.
14 Apr 2026
White House signals progress
Witt (PCADA): issues that "felt unsolvable have been resolved." Compromise described as durable.
16 Apr 2026
JPMorgan: "Close to a deal"
Research note says only a small number of issues remain unresolved. Flags election-year timing as primary risk.
21–22 Apr 2026
Markup slips to May · Moreno sets deadline
Tillis still negotiating with NC banks. April written off. Moreno's "done by May or shelved" statement moves Polymarket 38% → 46%.
27 Apr 2026
Lummis: "We are gonna get it to the finish line"
At Bitcoin Conference 2026, Lummis publicly commits to a May markup. First possible window: week of May 11, after Senate returns from recess.
29 Apr 2026
Tillis flips: "Ready to get to hearing"
North Carolina senator says the work has "addressed a lot of the concerns" of bank lobbyists. Tells reporters he'll urge Chair Scott to move forward.
30 Apr 2026
Trump: "Won't let bankers ruin the CLARITY Act"
President tells memecoin holders at Mar-a-Lago he wants the bill passed and would sign immediately. Public pressure on banking coalition intensifies.
1 May 2026
Stand With Crypto delivers 28K+ petition signatures
Advocacy group hand-delivers signatures gathered in 3 days to every Senate Banking office. Scott says he has Tillis + others; needs all 13 GOP votes; targets June/July floor.
Today
10 days to the markup window
Watch list: Scott formally schedules markup · Kennedy announces position · Grassley Judiciary fight resolves · final yield compromise text published.
There is more momentum than ever for a markup in May.
Cody Carbone, CEO · The Digital Chamber · April 29, 2026

§ 05Latest Wire live coverage

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